Note that this discussion references no testimony from experts, no statistics, and no historical event as evidence. Only our common understanding of the chemistry of genetics and probability theory. We do also consider some experimental evidence which works in FAVOR of evolution as well.
Lets tell a story children!
Imagine we are in the primordial soup somewhere where life first began by evolution.
The first pair of amino acids are about to join to create the first protein that will start the creation of a reproductive system that can allow natural selection to happen! (Oh I am Sooo Excited!!!)
There are 20 amino acids and we know that each protein in this system must be exactly made in a precise order to cause it to function properly. Therefore, the order of amino acids is critical.
For two particular amino acids to connect with any bond there is a 1/20 chance that at each location the correct amino acid is chosen by the random hand of Mr. Magical Evolution. So for two amino acids to somehow come close enough to connect and actually be in the correct order and of the correct type is 1/20 * 1/20 = 1/400.
So whatever it was that allowed the two amino acids to spontaneously join would take 400 attempts on average to come up with the correct pair of amino acids.
150 amino acids long is about the shortest observed in living systems.
That means that the odds of that forming a particular 150 amino acid protein by random chance is 1/20^150 = 20^-150.
We know that logb(m^n) = n · logb(m)
so -> log(20^150) = 150 * log(20) = 195 so 20^150 = 10^195.
If we grant that there are multiple possible viable 150 amino acid long proteins possible, according to Meyer, our odds of randomly creating one of them comes down to 1 in 10^74.
How big is 10^74 you ask?
There are believed to be 10^80th atoms in the universe.
This means that the probability of 150 amino acids coming together spontaneously from random forces is about 10^6 times more likely to happen than the chance of picking a particular atom out of the universe. That is equivalent to the odds of picking one of any of a million chosen atoms out of the universe on the first try.
- This does not take into account the probability of a primordial soup existing long enough for this to happen.
- This does not take into account how rapidly under real conditions amino acids would combine to form protein chains without the assistance of a DNA assembly plant found in today's living cells.
- This does not consider how stable a partially created protein would be in a theoretical primordial soup.
- This does not consider that there are 100,000 or so different kinds of proteins involved in life processes - most or all of which must exist together to form a self-replicating system that natural selection could begin to take effect on.
- This does not consider that living protein lengths average about 300-400 amino acids long.
- This does not consider the odds of actually assembling an entire cell including mitochondria, nucleus, the cell wall, lysosomes, nuclear membrane, Golgi bodies, Ribosomes, Centrosome, and Cytoplasm (and parts we don't even understand yet) which are all necessary for stable reproduction to happen so that natural selection can happen.
- This does not consider that in all life on earth, all amino acids used in living proteins are left handed. The odds of all amino acids in a randomly generated protein of 150 amino acids long is 1/2^150 = 10^-45.
- This does not consider that there are two kinds of bonds that amino acids can have and the one needed for biological activity is a peptide bond that happens randomly only about half of the time as observed in experiments. Thus the probability that all 150 amino acids are connected by peptide bonds as we see in life is 1/2^149 ~= 10^-45.
Consider this. A practical calculation of the odds of impossibility in this universe over all time (according to the latest big-bang theory numbers) considering the fastest possible rate of vibration activity (using planks constant) and the total number of atoms in the universe yields 10^-150. Scientists consider this to be an impossible probability given our universe's characteristics.
When we consider just the peptide bonds and left-handedness of a 150 amino acid chain forming a possibly functional sequence due to random combinations, we have 10^(-74-45-45) = 10^-164 which is 10^14 times more impossible than the impossible probability calculated above.
Therefore children, the odds of the evolutionary theory of life from dead things being true is at least 10^14 times more impossible than impossible.
God is AWESOME! Amen!